So Kabul has fallen.

The Ghani regime lasted barely three months after its NATO support started to be withdrawn. For comparison, Najibullah’s held out for three years after the Soviets withdrew its forces in 1989, outlasting even the USSR itself. Failure to come close to even that low mark belies…


Trump supporters claim that all the election-related court actions were rejected ‘for standing’, without evidence being considered. This is not true. Whilst standing was a big factor, lack of merit in Trump’s claims was mentioned by many judges as well. So let’s confirm this.

My approach was simple: I looked…


Just before the supposed ‘showdown’ on January 6th, the Trump campaign’s ‘data arm’ — the hilariously named ‘Data Integrity Group’ came up with yet another claim. Supposedly, the voting machines ‘subtracted’ votes from Trump. …


Here, I will give some links to fact-checking websites and ‘respectable’ media articles, addressing some other claims about the election. This page will keep being updated.

Georgia.

Georgia ballot curing is not election fraud.

Video does not show ‘suitcases of ballots’.

Michigan

Various claims for Michigan.

Trump Michigan case dismissed…


In part 1, we considered allegations of vote-fixing in suburban — including deeply republican — counties. Biden’s under-performance in the metropolitan areas such as Philadelphia compared to his over-performance in these suburban and exurban areas was considered to be evidence of fraud. …


A more interesting — and thus far not debunked — analysis concerns the difference between mail-in and in-person votes in Pennsylvania. Apart form Philadelphia, it is remarkably consistent — around 40%. This is the image in question — doing the rounds on Trump-supporting websites.

I have checked some of the data points at random, and they seem to be accurate. I do not have an explanation for this at the moment.


In the US, it is common to analyse election results at county level and compare with past elections to see how support for the two main parties changes with time. In 2020, it also seems to give rise to people scouring the county-level data in the ‘battleground’ states — the…


Hidden in point 11 of the so-called Ramsland Affidavit is a claim about fractional votes. People noticed that the ‘running total’ percentage share of the vote in the output from Dominion’s voting machines was given as a fraction of 1 — standard practice when writing computer code. …


Assuming statistical independence for events that are anything but independent is a staple diet of election-time fake news. The best example is this claim — made in court — that I reproduce in its full glory:

The ‘argument’ is this: assume each vote has a fixed probability of going to…


When data is manipulated using an algorithm, this can sometimes leave artefacts — tell-tale ‘footprints’ of the processing algorithm. For instance, if we take the modulus of the data (that is, remove the negative signs of the values), we will have a very sharp and distinct boundary at zero. This…

Mara Nale-Joakim

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